Predicting current and future habitat suitability of Cullenia exarillata A. Robyns – An endemic and keystone species of the Western Ghats

Bhavya M.S.; Jyoti Kumari; Namitha L.H.; Sudhakar Reddy

doi:10.58825/jog.2025.19.1.211

Authors

Bhavya M.S. National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO Hyderabad
Jyoti Kumari Kerala University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala
Namitha L.H. Department of Botany and Biotechnology, Bishop Moore College, Mavelikara, Alappuzha, Kerala
Sudhakar Reddy National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO Hyderabad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58825/jog.2025.19.1.211

Keywords:

Biodiversity, Species, Habitat, Climate change, Western Ghats

Abstract

Accurate prediction of habitat suitability is crucial for species of conservation importance. Predictive distribution models play a key role in conservation by identifying current and future suitable habitat. Cullenia exarillata A. Robyns is an endemic and keystone tree species of the tropical wet evergreen forests of the Western Ghats of India. This study used a species distribution model to predict the current and future distribution of Cullenia exarillata. Various environmental variables and the MaxEnt model were used to assess the current potential distribution and shifts within different shared socio-economic pathways. The findings illustrate the potential reduction of the species ecological niche in certain landscapes of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu under future climate change scenarios. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The Jackknife test was used to assess the significance of environmental factors. This study highlights the importance of targeted conservation and habitat management strategies for the conservation of Cullenia exarillata. This spatial approach can be applied to other species facing similar threats, making it an essential tool for broader conservation efforts.

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