Mapping Lightning Strikes across Gujarat State for the Year 2022 and Development of Prediction Model

Pratyush Rao; Gautam Shah; Nimit Savant; Seema Lakhani; Alok Taori; Pallavi Ghalsasi

doi:10.58825/jog.2025.19.1.208

Authors

Pratyush Rao School of Engineering and Technology, Navrachana University, Vadodara, Gujarat, India
Gautam Shah School of Engineering and Technology, Navrachana University, Vadodara, Gujarat, India
Nimit Savant School of Engineering and Technology, Navrachana University, Vadodara, Gujarat, India
Seema Lakhani School of Engineering and Technology, Navrachana University, Vadodara, Gujarat, India
Alok Taori National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO Hyderabad
Pallavi Ghalsasi School of Engineering and Technology, Navrachana University, Vadodara, Gujarat, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58825/jog.2025.19.1.208

Keywords:

Lightning, lightning detection sensor, vulnerable locations, mapping, elevation, land coverage, weather parameters, prediction model

Abstract

Under the influence of changing climate, extreme events are getting more frequent. Atmospheric lightning is considered a natural disaster which accounts for more than 40% of the weather-related deaths worldwide. Unlike the other weather-related phenomena, mitigation efforts pertaining to lightning need high resolution information on the vulnerable regions with region specific prediction. Present study is focused on mapping lightning incidences in the state of Gujarat, India, for the year 2022 and determines the vulnerable locations within a state.

Our studies have shown that during monsoon season, most of the lightning strikes happen where the elevation is less than 30 meters above sea level and post monsoon the built area poses a serious concern. Vulnerability of strikes also increases when the temperatures are between 21-30 ⁰C and curling wind speed is between 0-2 m/s. Our prediction model could predict 87% records correctly. The extended objective of the study is to develop a prediction model that aims to help implementing the appropriate nationwide mitigation efforts in the vulnerable geographical regions.

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